The enemies of Syria have been planning this catastrophe for a long time, and the different stages have been orchestrated very diligently.
Ever since the independence of Syria and Lebanon, Syria has been dubbed Lebanon’s “big sister”, and in more ways than one, Lebanon has depended heavily on Syria. Even during the period of political and financial instability, Syrian wealth was exported to Lebanon when Lebanon was having its golden age.
When the Syrian troops entered Lebanon in 1976 on request of the Lebanese government, they went in to establish peace and to enforce a cease fire. Whilst that elusive objective was not reached till 12 years later, Lebanon was the country that was unstable whilst Syria prospered and moved towards more and more stability.
And ever since the Hama battle in which Hafez Assad trapped and killed many Islamic fundamentalists, they eyes of the enemies of Syria were on the government.
In Lebanon in particular, Lebanese people are divided in their support and/or hatred to Syria. The irony is that those Lebanese who are anti-Syrian will always go to Syria when they need refuge, and with total ingratitude, they return to Lebanon when the need goes away and instead of speaking highly of their Syrian hosts, they bad mouth them and make up lies.
For decades, Lebanon has been Syria’s naughty boy who needed to be smacked and sent to bed, and whilst Syria supported Lebanon, its sovereignty and stability, whilst it helped the Lebanese Resistance against Israel and was instrumental in liberating South Lebanon, the anti-Syrian elements in Lebanon have been plotting big time trouble in Syria and for a long time; and they are not short on foreign supporters and funds.
Syria has been more than instrumental in supporting, training, financing and supplying resistance against Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah would not have made any real acheivements without Syria. And whilst the regional enemies of Syria are on their own incapable of inflicting much harm to Syria, Syria has big regional and international enemies; Israel and the US.
In reality, the anti-Syrian coalition, both regional and international, could do little about using Lebanon to de-stabilize Syria for as long as Syrian troops were still in Lebanon, so an exit strategy had to be planned out.
It is very clear now that Saad Hariri is personally involved in sending arms and troops into Syria. He has been caught red-handed. It is also clear that he was instrumental in getting Syria out of Lebanon. He accused Syria of assassinating his father immediately, and without any hesitation. This makes one wonder how did he conclude that Syria was the culprit, and what was his objective.
The “Cedar Revolution” wanted Syria out, and King Adballah of Saudi Arabia, still in good terms with Bashar Al-Assad back then in 2005, has advised Assad that the presence of Syria in Lebanon is no longer tenable and that Syria must leave.
The departure of Syrian troops from Lebanon gave the anti-Syrian coalition the Lebanese theatre to allow the conspiracy to fester. That was the first real step towards to what happening now in Syria, and long before the so-called Arab Spring kicked off.
Whoever killed Rafiq Hariri is the same entity that has planned and financed the “Free Syrian Army” (FSA). There is little doubt. If it is not the exact same entity that did both, the two entities will have to be twins politically, ideologically and strategically.
We are talking about the American/Israeli alliance via its Middle Eastern cohorts; the Saudis, the Qataris, and in Lebanon, the newly established 14 March Coalition.
The only missing link in the chain is the actual hand that killed Hariri. Hezbollah and Syria were not involved. They had no interest in killing him.
Back to the future, after the Syrian Arab Army establishes peace in Syria, and God willing it will, Bashar should rewind the clock slightly and secure his borders.
Syria will not have stability for as long as the infamous 14 March Coalition is still in existence. By hook or by crook, Syria must re-enter Lebanon and “clean it up”. There are pockets in Lebanon, especially in Tripoli and Akkar that have a deadly stench and need to be fumigated. Hariri and his right-wing friends in the Lebanese Forces, the Christian Militia, will have to be disabled.
In reality, the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad should perhaps not wait to clean up Lebanon after cleaning up Syria. Assad advisors should be advising him to clean up Lebanon first. The military might of the pro-Syrian Coalition is a great force to be reckoned with.
It includes Hezbollah, the SSNP, Al-Marada, and the Tayyar. All of those groups are highly trained and battle-ready. The only well-trained and battle-ready anti-Syrians are the Lebanese Forces. Hariri does not have a real militia. He has armed thugs.
Assad made a series of grave mistakes. The first of which was to accept to withdraw Syrian troops from Lebanon. The second was that he did not crush the uprising swiftly and brutally in the beginning as he did not want to cause unwarranted bloodshed. If he now thinks that he should not allow the pro-Syrian Coalition to take control of Lebanon in fear of Lebanon succumbing into a new Civil War, he would be making another very serious mistake.
Turkey has been doing its bit de-stabilizing Syria, but Turkey will not allow chaos on its borders. The Kurdish issue is a big concern for Turkey and Turkey does not want to play with fire for too long.
Jordan is in a similar situation and King Adballah is on shaky grounds and he cannot allow his kingdom to be a route for the rebels and their arms. Iraq is primarily pro-Syrian. Lebanon is now Syria’s Achilles heel.
Without re-establishing control of Lebanon and putting a stop to the unstoppable smuggling of arms and men from Lebanon into Syria, Assad will find it very difficult to maintain peace.