Syria: The Bubble of Geneva

Posted: July 2, 2012 in Sideviews
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The next conference on Syria, in some media sold as a “breakthrough”, this time in Geneva, has produced a document that is a banal flop, a washout.

It is based on the initiative of Kofi Annan that was already mentioned here, also about the fact, that it was impossible to fulfill, and also why this initiative was impossible to get fulfill from the outset, based on completely objective reasons.

For this reason there is no need to discuss again why the conclusion of this conference will have no practical effect. There are only a few additions.

Firstly, the composition of the conference. The United States, the Euro-Trio, Russia, and Turkey – so far, everything is clear. Iran has not been a part of it – Saudi Arabia was symmetrical excluded, as well. Qatar – that is yet not so clear.

And Kuwait? Somehow wrong. Kuwait would at most be acceptable because of its Presidency of the Arab League, but then the question arises more and more, why Qatar. What should Qatar do there? That Syria was not invited to debate the Syrian question is pathetic, but typical, of course.  One is almost tempted to say that it has here been a kind of a meeting by future “victorious powers”.

Second. Turkey avoids it suspiciously, to pursue and boost the subject of pain over the loss or detention of their F-4 pilots. On the front page of the Turkish newspapers, there are no pictures of grief-stricken wives and mothers.

The rough comrades do not clench their fists and do not vow to take revenge on the cowardly Syrian air defense for the treacherous shot (downing). It is much safer now to speak about, that there were no pilots. However, an F-4 drone (Type QF-4) is not quite the same as a machine that is controlled by a pilot.

So, one is no more able to blame the air space violation furthermore on a slowcoach of pilot, a drone is not a hot-air balloon, but a drone is usually controlled by a whole staff of people, and when such a “thing” violates the Syrian airspace allegedly “by accident”, then, behind the operator at the joystick, there stands his boss, who gives clouts when he is in doubt; there should be an automatic “Plan B”, which takes over the control in such a situation.

All in all, therefore, this mission over enemy zone in the Syrian sky was no coincidence. That would be quite a different story.

The third thing. And the most important. The document of Geneva does not contain any mandatory / obligatory elements.  Consequently, there are no consequences, no threats, if it does not get implemented by someone.

Why they have then gathered in Geneva?

It would appear, that the persistence and resistance of Syria forces the aggressors, to calculate this correctly and to try now somehow to divide that matter, at least, accordingly to the Yemeni model and example – that means by a voluntary resignation of the President by certain guarantees.

However, nobody gives such guarantees. But without such guarantees, a resignation of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is totally unthinkable – it is too much transparent, what happens to him and his country in such a case.

Kofi Annan adds to his series of failed attempts at mediation (and that was already the case in Yugoslavia) with a further failed attempt at mediation, and reinforces his reputation by this fail – if you want to fuck up something, just call Kofi Annan.



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