Today begins the G20 summit in Mexico. Unofficially, this could be the platform, where Putin and the West will decide about the last deal on the topic Syria.
Everything indicates that the time for decisions to either Syria now is already there, or in close temporal proximity, so that it is imminent – there is just the weekend – can also be understood as a “now”.
There are lot of evidence suggests that the U.S. will announce its concrete track shortly. Here are aware no sources mentioned, there are tons of them and all are accessible to everybody (not just DEBKAfile).
Just one example: RussiaToday (RT) has quoted a source of the U.S. government with “not if but when” in relation to an attack on Syria. There is nothing more just “on the table” as the Americans usually do announce their early attacks on sovereign states.
It’s all in all, about a possible and in not very distant time, military strike against air defenses and infrastructure of the Syrian Arab Republic, also about limited special operations on the ground, against the most valiant and loyal units of the Syrian army.
In parallel, a massive media attack is to expected, which should no more target the “world opinion” so much, but it should target on the people of Syria itself.
The goal of the “media campaign” is to spread panic, insecurity and instability. At the same time, all available armed rebel forces will be thrown on Syira from three directions: from Jordan for the province of Daraa, from Lebanon to the province of Homs and from Turkey through Idlib (Idleb) and Latakia. The initial occurrence of conflicts in the Syrian district and city of Hama is probably.
Finally, special units will be active at intersections / hubs and in larger cities – not unlikely that these tasks are taken, as once in Libya, from units from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. There was a information about “Al-Qaeda fighters” on the Syrian-Iraqi border. This could be added.
All this will be a “light” version of the raid on Libya. That means there will be a no-fly zone with a halfway useful explanation: the trigger can be another provocation, as in al-Houla (al-Hula), but it also can happen completely without any new cause – there is no time for such sensitivities. It is not necessary that U.S. aircraft carriers are on site – Al Udeid in Qatar and Incirlik in Turkey should be sufficient enough as air force bases.
The question is currently about Russia’s attitude. The majority of Russians stamp with their feet and demand from their leadership not only in a low voice more active action. Not to mention all the Syrians, who desire of Russia a more active and resolute partisanship since a long time. There are versions that range from a no-fly zone by Russia up to relinquish of Syria by Russia, virtually without any comment.
Both extremes take only inadequately into account, the division that runs through the Russian leadership. This division brings with it, that the Russian plans are just not quite as easy to predict. It depends who retains the upper hand in this matter.
Anyway, it is Putin and not Medvedev, who travels to the G20 meeting today. Probably, they will just tell him simply the facts, and considering a series of clues, Russia will gradually “give up” Syria; that is, in this particular case, they will oppose it only with words, and only demand that they have the right to further maintain their naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus (Tartous).
This then is probably the relocation of units of marines (?) The relocation of units of marines in this area could be related (?) to this. The only task that could the duty for these unites could be the protection of the territory where the naval base is located, the protection before the armed rebel factions and from whatever quarter, that has the idea to attack this basis.
It is likely that the U.S. will admit that – a small price to pay for the abstention of Russia. There is a second “Hanger” for Russia, i.e. the estimated 80000-100000 Russian citizens who are living in Syria.
It’s about spouses of Syrians, to their children and families, and others Russians living in Syria. It is technically feasible to evacuate them, but maybe Russia beckons just simple from it and only releases a warning.
Of those living Russians in Syria, by the way, we hear that almost 99% of Syrians are convinced that there will be no foreign aggression. A sort of “no-fly zone” is there already, even without Russian or other involvement:
That is what the Russians have built up there over the years. Heavy artillery would have to been excavated, without the United States, this is not really possible. The French alone, for example, would have no chance here with their air force.
Certainly, all that have been said so far must not be necessarily true. It would be particularly even better on the more pessimistic forecast of Russia’s upcoming maneuvers, this would not happen that way.
Nevertheless, the situation on the ground in Syria has gradually turned in favor of the Syrian government during the past week – the armed militias that had penetrated into the Syrian provinces of Latakia and Idleb (Idlib) were almost successfully destroyed, there were successful operations against associations in Daraa, Damascus, Hama, and Homs, which have worked in the underground; the cleanup are progressing.
A further delay could be negative for the West and easily “destroy” the whole benefits which were able to gain by the six-point plan of the UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan and its “ceasefire”. It remains to be hardly any time.
The last weeks were also characterized by a veritable flood of information from American, Israeli, European, and Russian (mostly pro-Western) media, which speak of an imminent attack on Syria soon. Sure, it is possible that this is only another wave of attacks in the information war, but the logic dictates it, that this should serve the form opinions and should prepare for the inevitable.
It is highly desirable that Putin finds the arguments to thwart such plans today. Finally, the Americans have invaded Grenada in 1982 to protect their fellow countrymen – and actually, they had the right to do so. When Russia has protected the Ossetians and Abkhazians, it has shown that a Russian passport is not just a useless piece of paper.
It is not clear why the Russian women and children, living in Syria, should be treated any differently than those in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. A smashing of Syria would mean with some probability, that not only the Iran is next, but also that Russia itself could be next in the series.
Russia is with the new Liberal traversed government the weaker link. The logic, as well as such stupid hints of McCain, that Putin could share the fate of Gaddafi (Qaddafi), would have to actually activate, at least, his self-preservation.
A task of Syria would be an enormous step toward the sewer, in which the “angry people” no longer are hunting an Arabic, but a Russian leader.
Much depends on how Putin behaves today at the G20 meeting and how he will react in direction to Barack Obama. It urgently needs the proverbial “nyet” with the appropriate actions thereafter.
Once the UNSMIS is deducted from Syria, one can be sure it will get dark within a few days. The UNSMIS has suspended its mission and justified it with the “increased violence” – although the violence in the country has decreased after the destruction of the armed rebel forces in and around Latakia.
Based on: http://apxwn.blogspot.de